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Reading24. Financial Analysis Techniques

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Financial Analysis Techniques

24.1 财务分析工具及比率分析

24.1.1 同比分析法(Common-Size Analysis)

一、同比资产负债表(Common-Size Analysis of the Balance Sheet)

A vertical common-size balance sheet expresses all balance sheet accounts as a percentage of total assets.
v e r t i c a l   c o m m o n − s i z e   b a l a n c e   s h e e t   r a t i o s = b a l a n c e   s h e e t   a c c o u n t t o t a l   a s s e t s vertical \ common-size \ balance \ sheet \ ratios = \frac{balance \ sheet \ account}{total \ assets} vertical common−size balance sheet ratios=total assetsbalance sheet account​

二、同比损益表(Common-Size Analysis of Income Statement)

A vertical common-size income statement expresses all income statement items as a percentage of sales.
v e r t i c a l   c o m m o n − s i z e   i n c o m e   s t a t e m e n t   r a t i o s = i n c o m e   s t a t e m e n t   a c c o u n t s a l e s vertical \ common-size \ income \ statement \ ratios = \frac{income \ statement \ account}{sales} vertical common−size income statement ratios=salesincome statement account​

三、同比现金流量表(Common-Size Analysis of the Cash Flow Statement)

A vertical common-size cash flow statement expresses all cash flow statement items as a percentage of sales or total cash flow(two methods)

四、A horizontal common-size balance sheet or income statement

20X420X520X6
Inventory1.01.11.4
Cash and marketable securities1.01.31.2
long term debt1.01.61.8
PP&E(net of depreciation)1.00.90.8

五、Graphical Analysis

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六、Regression Analysis

24.1.2 常用比率

Ratio analysis are useful tools for expressing relationships among data that can be used for internal comparisons and comparisons across firms.

一、流动性比率(Liquidity Ratio)

The ability to pay short-term obligations as they come due.

二、偿债能力比率(Solvency Ratio)

Solvency ratios measure a firm’s financial leverage and ability to meet its long-term obligations.

三、盈利能力比率(Profitability Ratio)

How well the company generates operating profits and net profits from its sales.

四、活动比率(Activity Ratio)

Measure how efficiently the firm is managing its assets.

五、Valuation ratios

Comparing the relative valuation of companies. Such as sales per share, earning per share, and price to cash flow per share.

24.1.3 Equity analysis

24.1.4 杜邦分析法(DuPont analysis)

一、杜邦三步法(Dupont Three-Steps)

R e t u r n   o n   e q u i t y = n e t   i n c o m e r e v e n u e ∗ r e v e n u e a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s ∗ a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s a v e r a g e   e q u i t y R O E = s a l e s   p r o f i t   m a r g i n ∗ t o t a l   a s s e t   t u r n o v e r ∗ l e v e r a g e Return \ on \ equity = \frac{net \ income}{revenue} * \frac{revenue}{average \ total \ assets} * \frac{average \ total \ assets}{average \ equity} \\ ROE = sales \ profit \ margin * total \ asset \ turnover * leverage Return on equity=revenuenet income​∗average total assetsrevenue​∗average equityaverage total assets​ROE=sales profit margin∗total asset turnover∗leverage

If ROE is relatively low, The company has a poor profit margin. The company has poor asset turnover. The firm has too little leverage.

二、杜邦五步法(Dupont Five-Steps)

n e t   i n c o m e a v e r a g e   s h a r e h o l d e r s ′   e q u i t y = n e t   i n c o m e E B T ∗ E B T E B I T ∗ E B I T r e v e n u e ∗ r e v e n u e a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s ∗ a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s a v e r a g e   s h a r e h o l d e r s ′   e q u i t y R O E = 税 务 负 担 比 率 ( t a x   b u r d e n ) ∗ 利 息 负 担 比 率 ( i n t e r e s t   b u r d e n ) ∗ E B I T   m a r g i n ∗ t o t a l   a s s e t   t u r n o v e r ∗ l e v e r a g e \frac{net \ income}{average \ shareholders' \ equity} = \frac{net \ income}{EBT} * \frac{EBT}{EBIT} * \frac{EBIT}{revenue} * \frac{revenue}{average \ total \ assets} * \frac{average \ total \ assets}{average \ shareholders' \ equity} \\ ROE = 税务负担比率(tax \ burden) * 利息负担比率(interest \ burden) * EBIT \ margin * total \ asset \ turnover * leverage average shareholders′ equitynet income​=EBTnet income​∗EBITEBT​∗revenueEBIT​∗average total assetsrevenue​∗average shareholders′ equityaverage total assets​ROE=税务负担比率(tax burden)∗利息负担比率(interest burden)∗EBIT margin∗total asset turnover∗leverage

24.2 财务分析、信用分析及企业分部报告

24.2.1 股权投资分析(Equity Analysis)

一、分红相关比率

  1. 每股分红(Dividend per Share)

    这个指标衡量的是企业的平均每股分红,公式中分母是加权平均的市场流通普通股股数,分子即公司宣布的分红(dividend declared)。
    D i v i d e n d   p e r   s h a r e ( D P S ) = D i v i d e n d   d e c l a r e d / N u m b e r   o f   c o m m o n   s h a r e s Dividend \ per \ share(DPS) = Dividend \ declared / Number \ of \ common \ shares Dividend per share(DPS)=Dividend declared/Number of common shares

  2. 股利发放比率(Dividend Payout Ratio)

    这个指标反映的是企业向股东分派的股息占公司当年盈利的百分比。
    D i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o = D i v i d e n d / N e t   i n c o m e Dividend \ payout \ ratio = Dividend / Net \ income Dividend payout ratio=Dividend/Net income

  3. 留存比率(Retention Ratio)

    留存比率反映的是公司利润中没有以股息形式发放给股东的比率,和股利发放率刚好成互补关系。
    R e t e n t i o n   r a t i o = 1 − D i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o Retention \ ratio = 1 - Dividend \ payout \ ratio Retention ratio=1−Dividend payout ratio

二、可持续增长率(Sustainable Growth Rate)

企业的可持续增长率衡量的是企业在长期平衡增长阶段的增长速度。
S u s t a i n a b l e   g r o w t h   r a t e ( g ) = R O E ∗ R e t e n t i o n   t a t e = R O E ∗ ( 1 − D i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o ) Sustainable \ growth \ rate(g) = ROE * Retention \ tate = ROE * (1 - Dividend \ payout \ ratio) Sustainable growth rate(g)=ROE∗Retention tate=ROE∗(1−Dividend payout ratio)

24.2.2 信用分析(Credit Analysis)

信用风险,是指债权人面临的债务人没有按照条约还款的风险。信用分析是指对这类违约风险进行评估分析的过程。

24.2.3 企业分部门报告(Segment Reporting)

部门比率公式
部门利润率(Segment margin)部门利润/部门收入
部门周转率(Segment turnover)部门收入/部门资产
部门资产回报率(Segment ROA)部门利润/部门资产
部门负债比率(Segment debt ratio)部门负债/部门资产

24.2.4 估值模型与预测(Model Building and Forecasting)

为了预估一家企业未来的盈利能力,从而对公司股价有更好的判断,分析师会利用盈利模型(earnings model)做预测(forecasting)。在做预测的时候,分析师可以参考以下方法:

1. 敏感性分析法(sensitivity analysis),也叫作“what if”分析:表达的是某一个假设条件发生改变对公司的影响。
2. 情景分析(scenario analysis):是指分析师在对公司股价做预测时,可以列举不同的情景来对公司做全面的分析,如供应短缺或者顾客减少时对公司的影响。
3. 模拟分析(simulation):如果想要将敏感性分析与情景分析大量不同的概率情况做一次演算,必须通过计算机实现。这个过程叫模拟分析。

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来源: https://blog.csdn.net/ccblogs/article/details/112206882